Saturday, November 10, 2012
An Update - Where I'm At.
The reason, after having traded for a living since 2001, though I love trading, the markets, the personalities, the bullshit; I was getting stale, holed up in my cave, getting whiter, weaker, flabbier and ever more reclusive from the real world out there. I needed some sun, some exercise and some interaction with real humans. I needed to reconnect with matrix, get fit, do some sweating, meet some truly excellent people, deal with some truly dire assholes and see a bit of the country I live in.
I felt a bit like Rip Van Winkle, without the beard... perhaps I'm embellishing a tad, but essentially that's a little bit how I felt.
So I started a small business that was nothing at all to do with trading, finance or the markets with the intention that it would be enough to get me out of the house for a few hours a day and fulfill the above desire.
Soon, I was inundated with work and it kinda took over. I was still trading, but a lot less actively and on a far longer timescale than my norm. Financially it has been OK, but it certainly has detracted from my first true interest, markets and trading. I'm going to keep that business going, but it's time to draw a line in the sand and scale that back enough to do what I want to do here.
As is obvious, options are my preferred weapon for going into battle with Mr Market (Though I rather suspect the market is female :-P ), but I think there is only so much one can write about options without seeming overly erudite and head-masterly... and a bit wanky. I'll continue to write stuff on options that I think might be interesting, but I've always strategized with technical analysis, both the normal sort of way - support and resistance etc. - and a kind of layman's statistical approach, trying to guess probabilities.
So to keep me more active and hopefully interesting, I'll be doing a bit of technical soothsaying on the S&P 500 and from time to time, on the larger stocks. In other words I'll call what I think, but always in a hedged way. I'm no gun predictor of markets, I'm wrong as much as the next muppet, but an option trader must have a view, whether that's an accurate picture, or a more diffuse idea of what he or she thinks the market may (or may not) do and play to that.
Having proffered up my excuses for non activity, you can expect a bit for from me from now on. I'm still getting a surprising amount of traffic here, I'm getting read a lot more than I expected under the circumstances, but not much comment.
It's always nice to get feedback, so speak up, I want to hear what you have to say.